天基预警卫星弹道预报能力仿真分析

天基预警卫星对导弹位置和速度的预测误差是引导信息中的重要组成部分,直接影响到远程预警雷达和跟踪制导雷达的搜索性能.根据天基预警卫星视线角误差和导弹目标经验数据,设计导弹预报误差估计模型,计算预报误差带半径.仿真结果表明:通过对理想弹道目标进行观测误差协方差分析,可以获得预警卫星观测的水平及垂直平面预测误差带.     

反导预警雷达的优化配置问题研究

根据反导预警雷达的预警任务和配置要求,建立带有可调参数的反导预警雷达优化配置模型.首先,给出雷达对弹道覆盖范围的计算方法,并建立X波段多功能相控阵雷达的优化配置模型.其次,考虑实战中对预警时间和重叠探测区的不同需求,在P波段远程预警相控阵雷达的优化配置模型中引入了可调参数,使输出的方案能同时满足对预警时间和重叠探测区的作战需求.最后,通过实例分析验证了模型的可行性,并且发现预警时间最大化与重叠探测区最大化不能同时实现,反导作战指挥人员应根据实际情况选择适当的可调参数,输出满足实战需求的雷达配置方案.     

防空预警监视雷达系统的发展与对策

文章以美“空海一体战”理论的提出为背景,深刻分析了新战略背景下我防空预警监视雷达系统所面临的现实威胁和挑战,结合我军防空预警监视雷达系统现状,对该系统的建设发展问题进行了多方位分析和研究,指出朝着基于系统构成优化、作战运用优化以及信息高效融合的一体化方向发展是我防空预警监视雷达系统在新战略背景下的必然选择.     

基于AHP的舰船大风浪中航行安全评价

舰船在大风浪中航行的风险是一个比较重要的研究领域,其风险程度很难用量化进行评估.为了更好地方便研究,并为以后的研究奠定理论基础,采用了层次分析法,建立舰船在大风浪中航行的安全评价体系,同时构造了判断矩阵,并进行了层次单排序一致性检验,求出了每个影响舰船航行安全因素的权重,并通过实例进行解算,得出结果和实际情况相比大致相似.此方法可以较好地对舰船在大风浪中航行的安全进行直观的描述,可供舰船长用来掌握舰船航行的风险情况,进而进行有效的风险决策.     

机载自卫电子对抗仿真评估系统

根据机载自卫电子对抗试飞验证的需要,分析机载自卫电子对抗仿真评估的任务使命、结构和功能。建立了雷达系统、侦察系统、干扰系统和评估系统的数学模型,设计并开发机载自卫电子对抗仿真评估软件,为机载自卫电子对抗试飞验证提供仿真实验平台,仿真结果验证了该仿真评估系统的有效性。     

弹道导弹预警仿真系统中弹道构造方法

建立符合作战想定要求的弹道导弹飞行轨迹模型,并按仿真时间步长推算弹道导弹的位置状态,是构建弹道导弹预警探测仿真系统的首要任务。首先在不考虑地球自转的情况下,按照指定的发射点和落点,依据最小能量弹道理论建立了弹道导弹关机点参数计算模型和被动段运动学模型。在此基础上,采用迭代的方法计算考虑地球自转时的弹道导弹关机点参数,并在地心惯性直角坐标系下构造了弹道导弹的被动段弹道。最后将利用法构造的弹道参数与STK中对应参数进行了对比分析,结果证明了所提出方法的正确性。     

Nuclear deterrence and cyber warfare: coexistence or competition?

Nuclear deterrence and cyber war seem almost antithetical in their respective intellectual pedigrees. Nuclear weapons are unique in their ability to create mass destruction in a short time. Information or “cyber” weapons, at least for the most part, aim at sowing confusion or mass disruption instead of widespread physical destruction. Nevertheless, there are some intersections between cyber and nuclear matters, and these have the potential to become troublesome for the future of nuclear deterrence. For example, cyber attacks might complicate the management of a nuclear crisis. As well, information attacks on command-control and communications systems might lead to a mistaken nuclear launch based on false warnings, to erroneous interpretations of data or to panic on account of feared information blackout. It is not inconceivable that future nuclear strike planning will include a preliminary wave of cyber strikes or at least a more protracted “preparation of the battlefield” by roaming through enemy networks to plant malware or map vulnerabilities.     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

基于网格技术的联合空情预警体系建设

网格技术的先进理念与联合空情预警体系的思想不谋而合,将网格技术应用于联合空情预警体系的建设之中,必将引发联合空情预警体系系统功能全面性、革命性的提升。首先提出基于网格技术构建联合空情预警体系的建设思路,详细分析了联合空情预警体系的功能构想,着重探讨了联合空情预警体系的作战体系结构、系统体系结构、技术体系结构,并提出联合空情预警体系构建中应把握的几个重要问题。     

自由飞行段弹道估计方法

主要研究空间预警系统利用星载红外传感器的视线测量估计弹道导弹自由飞行段弹道的问题。针对目标运动的弱可观测性 ,提出了位置与速度依次滤波的改进Gauss -Newton方法 ,解决了自由段弹道的最大似然估计问题 ,利用MonteCarlo仿真实验验证了估计方法的有效性 ,并对估计误差进行了分析。